Lifesaving explains mortality decline with time

Mortality rates of human populations in developed countries are declining with time. We show that this effect can be explained via a ‘lifesaving’ methodology. Our approach is based on considering a non-homogeneous Poisson process of potentially harmful events. Each of these events can be ‘cured’ wit...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Mathematical biosciences 2005-08, Vol.196 (2), p.187-197
Main Author: Finkelstein, M.S.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Gompertz law of mortality
Heterogeneous populations
Humans
Life Expectancy - trends
Lifesaving
Minimal repair
Models, Biological
Models, Statistical
Poisson Distribution
Poisson process
Quality of Health Care - trends
Stochastic Processes
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Summary:Mortality rates of human populations in developed countries are declining with time. We show that this effect can be explained via a ‘lifesaving’ methodology. Our approach is based on considering a non-homogeneous Poisson process of potentially harmful events. Each of these events can be ‘cured’ with a given probability or can result in a termination of the Poisson process (death) with a complementary probability. A lifesaving ratio, defining the corresponding relative increase in life expectancy for homogeneous and heterogeneous populations is analyzed. Some generalizations are discussed. Several simple examples are considered.
ISSN:0025-5564
1879-3134
DOI:10.1016/j.mbs.2005.04.004