Psychometric assessment of dynamic risk factors for child molesters

To explore the relationship between dynamic risk factors and recidivism in child molesters, we studied a sample of men (N=495) who completed an intensive, prison-based treatment program in New Zealand. During the follow-up period (M=5.8 years), 9.9% were reconvicted for a sexual offense. A self-repo...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Sexual abuse 2007-12, Vol.19 (4), p.347-367
Main Authors: Allan, Michael, Grace, Randolph C, Rutherford, Bronwyn, Hudson, Stephen M
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adult
Anger
Behavior
Child
Child Abuse, Sexual - psychology
Child Abuse, Sexual - rehabilitation
Child Sexual Abuse
Evaluation
Follow-Up Studies
Forensic Psychiatry - methods
Humans
Individual Differences
Male
Middle Aged
Multivariate Analysis
New Zealand
Offenses
Patient Acceptance of Health Care - psychology
Prisoners
Prisoners - psychology
Psychometrics
Recidivism
Regression Analysis
Risk Assessment
Risk Factors
Secondary Prevention
Treatment Outcome
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Summary:To explore the relationship between dynamic risk factors and recidivism in child molesters, we studied a sample of men (N=495) who completed an intensive, prison-based treatment program in New Zealand. During the follow-up period (M=5.8 years), 9.9% were reconvicted for a sexual offense. A self-report psychometric battery was administered at pre-treatment that assessed a range of variables related to sexual attitudes and beliefs, emotional functioning, and interpersonal competency. Factor analysis showed that individual differences in the battery could be described by four dimensions-Social Inadequacy, Sexual Interests, Anger/Hostility, and Pro-Offending Attitudes. Factor scores for each dimension were significantly correlated with sexual recidivism. Logistic regression analyses confirmed that the Sexual Interests and Pro-Offending Attitudes factor scores, as well as an Overall Deviance score which combined the dimensions, provided significant additional validity for predicting recidivism beyond the Static-99 (Hanson and Thornton Law and Human Behavior 24:119-136, 2000). When added to the Static-99, the Overall Deviance score increased the area under the Receiver-Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) from 0.72 to 0.81. These results show that psychometric self-reports can provide valid measures of dynamic risk factors, and that inclusion of such measures can improve risk prediction beyond that achievable by static factors alone.
ISSN:1079-0632
1573-286X
DOI:10.1007/s11194-007-9052-5