From association to alert-a revised approach to international signal analysis

• Published in: Pharmacoepidemiology and drug safety 1999-04, Vol.8 (S1), p.S15-S25
• Main Authors: Lindquist, Marie, Edwards, Ivor Ralph, Bate, Andrew, Fucik, Helena, Nunes, Ana Maria, Ståhl, Malin
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: adverse drug reaction reporting systems; adverse drug reactions; Bayesian statistics; data mining; international; neural network; signal analysis; signal follow up; signal generation
• ISSN: 1053-8569; 1099-1557
• DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1557(199904)8:1+3.0.CO;2-B

From the inception of the WHO international drug monitoring programme, the main aim has been to detect signals of adverse reaction problems as early as possible. The Uppsala Monitoring Centre (UMC), is now in a better position to fulfil this mission. Using the latest technology, new tools have been developed which allow for rapid, robust and comprehensive data mining of the WHO database. Based on retrospective time scans made during the pilot phase the current threshold used is the 97.5% confidence level of difference from the generality of the database. To maximize the capacity for picking up signals, we intend to extend today's panel of expert consultants, as well as doing our own review. The new system includes an enhanced follow‐up list of signals, a ‘re‐signalling’ procedure and a cumulative historical file of all drug–ADR associations. Already we produce some 50 signals per year, cisapride and tachycardia being an example of a controversial signal only recently accepted. With the addition of new tools for follow‐up of important signals such as complex variable data mining techniques, and the combination of WHO ADR data with sales and prescription figures from the IMS, we will be able to provide more information that should benefit regulators, producers, prescribers, and most importantly, the users of medicines. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.