Building epidemiological models from R0: an implicit treatment of transmission in networks

Simple deterministic models are still at the core of theoretical epidemiology despite the increasing evidence for the importance of contact networks underlying transmission at the individual level. These mean-field or ‘compartmental’ models based on homogeneous mixing have made, and continue to make...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the Royal Society. B, Biological sciences Biological sciences, 2007-02, Vol.274 (1609), p.505-512
Main Authors: Aparicio, Juan Pablo, Pascual, Mercedes
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Basic Reproductive Number
Computer Simulation
Disease models
Disease Outbreaks
Disease transmission
Disease Transmission, Infectious
Ecological modeling
Epidemics
Epidemiology
Infections
Infectious diseases
Materials
Mean-Field Models
Models, Biological
Models, Statistical
Parametric models
Population Dynamics
Public Health
Random Networks
Small-World Networks
Stochastic models
Stochastic Processes
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Summary:Simple deterministic models are still at the core of theoretical epidemiology despite the increasing evidence for the importance of contact networks underlying transmission at the individual level. These mean-field or ‘compartmental’ models based on homogeneous mixing have made, and continue to make, important contributions to the epidemiology and the ecology of infectious diseases but fail to reproduce many of the features observed for disease spread in contact networks. In this work, we show that it is possible to incorporate the important effects of network structure on disease spread with a mean-field model derived from individual level considerations. We propose that the fundamental number known as the basic reproductive number of the disease,
ISSN:0962-8452
1471-2954
DOI:10.1098/rspb.2006.0057