Coincidence or Causal Connection? The Relationship between Thomas Jefferson's Visits to Monticello and Sally Hemings's Conceptions

Neiman constructs a probability estimate for the observed coincidence between Thomas Jefferson's visits to Monticello and Sally Heming's conceptions, on the assumption that Jefferson was not the father of Heming's children. A high probability would mean that the pattern of visits and...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The William and Mary quarterly 2000-01, Vol.57 (1), p.198-210
Main Author: Neiman, Fraser D.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Birthdays
Childbirth
Children
Coincidence
Conception
DNA
Female
Fertilization
Forum: Thomas Jefferson and Sally Hemings Redux
Hemings
Hemings, Sally
History
History of medicine
History, 18th Century
History, 19th Century
Humans
Jefferson
Jefferson, Thomas (1743-1826)
Paternity
Pregnancy
Presidents
Probabilities
Probability
Randomness
Reproductive history
Sexual Behavior - history
Virginia
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Description
Summary:Neiman constructs a probability estimate for the observed coincidence between Thomas Jefferson's visits to Monticello and Sally Heming's conceptions, on the assumption that Jefferson was not the father of Heming's children. A high probability would mean that the pattern of visits and conceptions noted could easily have occurred coincidentally.
ISSN:0043-5597
1933-7698
DOI:10.2307/2674366