Predicting Divorce among Newlyweds from the First Three Minutes of a Marital Conflict Discussion

This study tested the hypothesis that how a discussion of a marital conflict begins — in its first few minutes — is a predictor of divorce. The marital conflict discussion of 124 newlywed couples was coded using the Specific Affect Coding System, and the data were divided into positive, negative, an...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Family process 1999-09, Vol.38 (3), p.293-301
Main Authors: CARRÈRE, SYBIL, GOTTMAN, JOHN MORDECHAI
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adult
Biological and medical sciences
Codes
Communication
Conflict (Psychology)
Couple and family
Couples
Divorce
Divorce - psychology
Emotions
Expressed Emotion
Female
Forecasting
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
Humans
Husbands
Laboratories
Linear Models
Longitudinal Studies
Male
Marital stability
Marital status
Marriage - psychology
Multivariate Analysis
Observer Variation
Physiology
Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry
Psychology. Psychophysiology
Questionnaires
Sex Factors
Social psychology
Time Factors
Verbal Behavior - classification
Video recorders
Wives
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Summary:This study tested the hypothesis that how a discussion of a marital conflict begins — in its first few minutes — is a predictor of divorce. The marital conflict discussion of 124 newlywed couples was coded using the Specific Affect Coding System, and the data were divided into positive, negative, and positive‐minus‐negative affect totals for five 3‐minute intervals. It was possible to predict marital outcome over a 6‐year period using just the first 3 minutes of data for both husbands and wives. For husbands this prediction improved as the groups diverged in the remaining 12 minutes; for wives the prediction remained equally powerful for the remaining 12 minutes as it had been in the first 3 minutes.
ISSN:0014-7370
1545-5300
DOI:10.1111/j.1545-5300.1999.00293.x