The Science of Choosing the Right Decision Threshold in High-Stakes Diagnostics

Many diagnostic tasks require that a threshold be set to convert evidence that is a matter of degree into a positive or negative decision. Although techniques of decision analysis used in psychology help one select the particular threshold that is appropriate to a given situation and purpose, just t...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The American psychologist 1992-04, Vol.47 (4), p.522-532
Main Author: Swets, John A
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Acquired immune deficiency syndrome
AIDS
AIDS/HIV
Aircraft
Aircraft - standards
Clinical psychology
Decision Making
Diagnosis
HIV Infections - diagnosis
Human
Humans
Materials Testing
Methodology
Probability Learning
Problem Solving
Psychology
Space life sciences
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Summary:Many diagnostic tasks require that a threshold be set to convert evidence that is a matter of degree into a positive or negative decision. Although techniques of decision analysis used in psychology help one select the particular threshold that is appropriate to a given situation and purpose, just the concept of adjusting the threshold to the situation is not appreciated in many important practical arenas. Testing for the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and for dangerous flaws in aircraft structures are used here as illustrations. This article briefly reviews the relevant techniques and develops those two examples with data. It suggests that use of the decision techniques could substantially benefit individuals and society and asks how that use might be facilitated.
ISSN:0003-066X
1935-990X
DOI:10.1037/0003-066X.47.4.522