Assessing the accuracy of wildland fire situation analysis (WFSA) fire size and suppression cost estimates

To determine the optimal suppression strategy for escaped wildfires, federal land managers are required to conduct a wildland fire situation analysis (WFSA). As part of the WFSA process, fire managers estimate final fire size and suppression costs. Estimates from 58 WFSAs conducted during the 2002 f...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of forestry 2005, Vol.103 (1), p.10-13
Main Authors: Donovan, G.H, Noordijk, P
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accuracy
cost analysis
decision making
decision support systems
decision trees
fire fighting
fire managers
Forest & brush fires
public lands
wildland fire management
Wildlife management
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Summary:To determine the optimal suppression strategy for escaped wildfires, federal land managers are required to conduct a wildland fire situation analysis (WFSA). As part of the WFSA process, fire managers estimate final fire size and suppression costs. Estimates from 58 WFSAs conducted during the 2002 fire season are compared to actual outcomes. Results indicate that estimates of fire size and suppression costs are systematically biased. Modifications to the WFSA process are suggested to address these problems. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]
ISSN:0022-1201
1938-3746
DOI:10.1093/jof/103.1.10