Confessions of the estimators: numbers and health reform

Analysts charged with determining the fiscal impact of the Clinton plan found themselves faced with an enormous task and impossibly short deadlines. The process of cost estimation is addressed with what estimators need to know and whether data exist in rich enough detail to provide an adequate estim...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Health Affairs 1995, Vol.14 (1), p.37-55
Main Authors: Bilheimer, L T, Reischauer, R D
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Aversion
Budget deficits
Censuses
Compensation
Cost estimates
Data processing
Data quality
Demographics
Drug formularies
Economic models
Employers
Employment
Estimates
Estimation
Expenditures
Health care
Health Care Costs
Health care expenditures
Health care policy
Health Care Reform - economics
Health insurance
Home health care
Insurance coverage
Medicaid
Medicare
Payments
Proposals
Reforms
Risk aversion
United States
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Description
Summary:Analysts charged with determining the fiscal impact of the Clinton plan found themselves faced with an enormous task and impossibly short deadlines. The process of cost estimation is addressed with what estimators need to know and whether data exist in rich enough detail to provide an adequate estimate on which to base policies that will affect the lives of millions of Americans. The available data are woefully inadequate to product good estimates of such complex factors as the impact of the health insurance plan choices of diverse populations, the extent to which risk segmentation affects costs, and other issues for which a simple solution does not exist.
ISSN:0278-2715
1544-5208
DOI:10.1377/hlthaff.14.1.37