Projections of lung cancer mortality in the United States: 1985-2025

Lung cancer has been the leading cause of cancer death in the United States for the larger part of this century. Increases in smoking prevalence from the 1900s through the 1950s have resulted in more than 100,000 deaths annually. Because of the changes during the last three decades in smoking preval...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:JNCI : Journal of the National Cancer Institute 1988-03, Vol.80 (1), p.43-51
Main Authors: BROWN, C. C, KESSLER, L. G
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adult
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Biological and medical sciences
Female
Forecasting
Humans
Lung Neoplasms - etiology
Lung Neoplasms - mortality
Male
Medical sciences
Middle Aged
Models, Theoretical
Pneumology
Regression Analysis
Sex Factors
Smoking - trends
Tumors of the respiratory system and mediastinum
United States
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Summary:Lung cancer has been the leading cause of cancer death in the United States for the larger part of this century. Increases in smoking prevalence from the 1900s through the 1950s have resulted in more than 100,000 deaths annually. Because of the changes during the last three decades in smoking prevalence, the decreasing tar content of cigarettes, and the increasing popularity of low-tar cigarettes, trends in lung cancer are difficult to predict. This article presents an analysis of smoking and lung cancer data using an age-period-cohort model for projecting lung cancer mortality through the year 2025. The projections are based on the initial parameterization of the model and on prevention objectives related to smoking behavior established by the National Cancer Institute. It is concluded that the recent trends in lung cancer are unlikely to be affected by changes in cigarette composition and consumption in the near term, but increasing the effectiveness of anti-smoking campaigns can have a considerable effect on lung cancer rates in the more distant future.
ISSN:0027-8874
1460-2105
DOI:10.1093/jnci/80.1.43