Party Identification, Retrospective Voting, and Moderating Elections in a Federal System: West Germany, 1961-1989

The hypotheses of retrospective voting and moderating elections rationalize some empirical regularities in U.S. presidential and congressional elections that posed a challenge for the party identification hypothesis. Here, these hypotheses are applied to the German federal system that is characteriz...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Comparative political studies 1997-08, Vol.30 (4), p.420-449
Main Authors: LOHMANN, SUSANNE, BRADY, DAVID W., RIVERS, DOUGLAS
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
1961-1989
Comparative government
ELECTION
Elections
Federal states
Germany (West)
Germany, Federal Republic of
History
Hypotheses
Parliamentary elections
Party identification
Political Parties
POLITICAL PARTY
Political science
POLITICAL SYSTEM AS A WHOLE
Political Systems
VOTING
Voting (1961-89)
Voting behaviour
WEST GERMANY
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Summary:The hypotheses of retrospective voting and moderating elections rationalize some empirical regularities in U.S. presidential and congressional elections that posed a challenge for the party identification hypothesis. Here, these hypotheses are applied to the German federal system that is characterized by staggered national and Land (provincial) elections. They are tested using data on real GNP growth at the national and Land levels, party vote shares in national and Land elections, party seat shares in national and Land parliaments, and the party composition of national and Land governments over the time period 1961-1989. Perhaps surprisingly, all three hypotheses—party identification, retrospective voting, and moderating elections—find empirical support when applied to the German federal system. Although these hypotheses were formulated with reference to U.S. political institutions, they travel well—bar some modifications that take into account special features of the German political system.
ISSN:0010-4140
1552-3829
DOI:10.1177/0010414097030004002