Beyond Population Stabilization: The Case for Dramatically Reducing Global Human Numbers

There is a growing tension between two apparently irreconcilable trends: (1) demographic projections that world population size will reach 10 to 11 billion by the middle of the next century; and (2) scientific estimates that the Earth's long-term sustainable carrying capacity (at an “adequate t...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Politics and the life sciences 1997-09, Vol.16 (2), p.183-192
Main Author: Smail, J. Kenneth
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Biological sciences
Birth control
Carrying capacity
Demographic change
Demographic indicators
Demography
Depopulation
Ecological sustainability
Economic inequality
Environment
Food resources
Foreign Affairs
Growth
Human populations
Humans
Overpopulation
Policymaking
Politics
Population
Population decline
Population forecasts
Population Growth
Population Policy
Poverty
Quality of life
Roundtable Article
Scarcity
Standard of living
Women's education
World Population
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Summary:There is a growing tension between two apparently irreconcilable trends: (1) demographic projections that world population size will reach 10 to 11 billion by the middle of the next century; and (2) scientific estimates that the Earth's long-term sustainable carrying capacity (at an “adequate to comfortable” standard of living) may not be much greater than 2 to 3 billion. It is past time to develop internationally coordinated sociopolitical initiatives that go beyond slowing the growth or stabilizing global human numbers. After “inescapable realities” that humans must soon confront, and notwithstanding the considerable difficulties involved in establishing “global population optimums,” I conclude with several suggestions how best to bring about a very significant reduction in global population over the next two to three centuries. These proposals are cautiously optimistic.
ISSN:0730-9384
1471-5457
DOI:10.1017/S0730938400024539