Using a spatiotemporal climate model to assess population-level Douglas-fir growth sensitivity to climate change across large climatic gradients in British Columbia, Canada

• Published in: Forest ecology and management 2011-02, Vol.261 (3), p.589-600
• Main Authors: Griesbauer, Hardy P., Green, D. Scott, O’Neill, Gregory A.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: air temperature; Animal and plant ecology; Animal, plant and microbial ecology; Annual precipitation; Biological and medical sciences; boreal forests; British; British Columbia; Climate; Climate change; climate models; climatic factors; Coherence; dendroecology; Douglas-fir; Forest management; forest trees; Forestry; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; geographical variation; growth rings; Links; Mathematical models; population ecology; precipitation; Provenance; Pseudotsuga menziesii; soil water content; spatial variation; Synecology; temperate forests; temporal variation; Terrestrial ecosystems; tree growth; Tree-rings
• ISSN: 0378-1127; 1872-7042
• DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2010.11.012

▶ Douglas-fir population climate–growth sensitivity showed strong adaptation to provenance climate. ▶ Climate–growth sensitivities varied in coherent patterns over climatic gradients. ▶ Populations from disparate provenance climates displayed opposite growth responses to some climate variables. Effective adaptation of forest management practices to climate change will require a good understanding of the ecological and climatic factors influencing tree sensitivities and responses to climate. Using tree-ring data collected from 33 stands of mature interior Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca) spanning a wide climatic range in British Columbia (BC), Canada, we present an approach combining high-resolution spatiotemporal climate data with traditional dendroecological analyses to quantify relationships between population climate–growth sensitivity and provenance (i.e., seed-source origin) climate. Key results showed that Douglas-fir climate–growth sensitivities were strongly linked to provenance climate and varied in coherent patterns across climatic gradients. Climate–growth sensitivities and responses were sometimes opposite between provenances from disparate climates. Perhaps most importantly, our results showed that Douglas-fir productivity across most of its range was sensitive to moisture limitations, and this sensitivity increased strongly with decreasing provenance mean annual precipitation and increasing heat-moisture index. Using geographic information systems, we visualize the link between provenance mean annual precipitation and climatic sensitivity of Douglas-fir across BC to identify “high risk” populations. By understanding the link between biological responses and climate, forest managers may be able to spatially identify sensitive populations using spatiotemporal climate data.