Assessing the Influence of the ENSO on Tropical Cyclone Prevailing Tracks in the Western North Pacific

• Published in: Advances in atmospheric sciences 2010-11, Vol.27 (6), p.1361-1371
• Main Author: 赵海坤 吴立广 周伟灿
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; El Nino; ENSO事件; Geophysics/Geodesy; La Nina; Meteorology; River basins; Southern Oscillation; Statistical models; Tidal waves; Tropical cyclones; 模拟比赛; 热带气旋; 西北太平洋; 轨道模型
• ISSN: 0256-1530; 1861-9533
• DOI: 10.1007/s00376-010-9161-9

Using a statistical model for simulating tropical cyclone （TC） formation and a trajectory model for simulating TC tracks, the influence of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） on the peak-season （July-September） TC prevailing tracks in the western North Pacific basin is assessed based on 14 selected El Nino and 14 selected La Nina years during the period 1950-2007. It is found that the combination of statistical formation model and a trajectory model can simulate well the primary features of TC prevailing tracks on the interannual timescale. In the El Nino years, the significant enhancement of TC activity primarily occurs south of 20°N, especially east of 130°E. TCs that take the northwestward prevailing track and affect East Asia, including Taiwan Island, the Chinese mainland, Korea, and Japan, tend to move more westward in the El Nino years, while taking a more northward track in the La Nina years. Numerical simulations confirm that the ENSO-related changes in large-scale steering flows and TC formation locations can have a considerable influence on TC prevailing tracks.