Uzbekistan at Twenty-five: What Next?

Uzbekistan is Central Asia's geopolitical center of gravity. It not only is the region's most populous state but also borders all four other Central Asian states and Afghanistan. The country has been ruled with a firm hand by the same leader---Islam Karimov---since before the Soviet Union&...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Policy File 2016
Main Author: Stronski, Paul
Format: Report
Language:English
Subjects:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - US
Economic policy
Foreign policy
Government
Online Access:Request full text
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Summary:Uzbekistan is Central Asia's geopolitical center of gravity. It not only is the region's most populous state but also borders all four other Central Asian states and Afghanistan. The country has been ruled with a firm hand by the same leader---Islam Karimov---since before the Soviet Union's collapse. Karimov's political skill, his willingness to oppress all opposition, his disregard for the scorn of the international community, and his clever geopolitical maneuvering have given Uzbekistan a degree of stability that few predicted when it gained independence. But change will come to Uzbekistan, and its political system, security apparatus, and economy will be put to the test in the coming years. The country's ability to weather that test will have implications for the rest of the region. Its success will make it possible for Uzbekistan's neighbors to continue along their current trajectories. However, if it stumbles and creates any sort of instability in the heart of Central Asia, the consequences for the entire region---and, perhaps, even for key outside players like Russia and China---could be dire.