Parameters for Estimation of Casualties from First and Third Degree Flash Burns

• Published in: Policy File 2017
• Main Authors: Curling, Carl A, Todd, Samantha
• Format: Report
• Language: English
• Subjects: Institute for Defense Analyses

This document describes the continued extension of the methodology to include 1st and 3rd degree flash burns - 2nd degree flash burns are already included and constitute the primary injury mechanism from exposure to the thermal component of nuclear weapon effects. The document supports transparency, reproducibility, and potential future refinement of the models by detailing the analytical choices made when determining parameters. The intent is that the new models will be considered for inclusion in the next edition of Allied Medical Publication 7.5 (AMedP-7.5(B)). The first edition of AMedP-7.5 (AMedP-7.5(A)) is currently in distribution as a Ratification Draft within NATO, and will eventually replace AMedP-8(C) in NATO doctrine. Because the new models will be considered for AMedP-7.5, they are designed to fit with it, rather than with AMedP-8(C). Flash burns result from the initial thermal pulse from a nuclear weapon detonation. The thermal pulse from a detonation lasts from a fraction of a second to several seconds (increasing with yield), and is assumed to result in exposure to the skin on the body (typically not more than 50% of the total body surface area (50% TBSA)). This analysis will not address burns from fires secondary to the thermal pulse, and will not address optical burns (flash blindness or retinal burns). These are also not addressed as casualty mechanisms in the NATO CBRN casualty estimation methodology. In addition to not considering 1st and 3rd degree flash burns, there is one prominent aspect of casualties from flash burns in conjunction with other injuries from nuclear weapons that is not considered in the NATO CBRN casualty estimation methodology: "combined injuries." In this context, combined injuries are those that occur from multiple injury mechanisms at once: flash burns combined with radiation, radiation combined with blast injuries, blast injuries combined with flash burns, or all three mechanisms acting simultaneously. There is some research indicating that the combination of flash burns with radiation, or blast injuries with radiation, could result in casualties (including fatalities) at insult levels well below what might normally be regarded as significant.1 In the NATO casualty estimation methodology, however, the decision was made not to consider this aspect of combined injuries. This was based on the judgment that, "There are ... very little data available on combined injuries. Thus, creating a model of such injuries is n