Avoiding a Korean Calamity: Why Resolving the Dispute with Pyongyang Requires Keeping the Peace

President Trump has repeatedly threatened to attack North Korea. Prior to the announcement in March of a prospective summit between President Trump and Kim Jong-un, policymakers were becoming increasingly convinced that war was a serious possibility. However, there is no military solution to the Kor...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Policy File 2018
Main Author: Bandow, Doug
Format: Report
Language:English
Subjects:
Cato Institute
Conflict resolution
Foreign policy
Government
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Summary:President Trump has repeatedly threatened to attack North Korea. Prior to the announcement in March of a prospective summit between President Trump and Kim Jong-un, policymakers were becoming increasingly convinced that war was a serious possibility. However, there is no military solution to the Korean crisis at an acceptable cost and risk. The Kim regime has tested both nuclear weapons and long-range missiles. North Korean officials have long contended that America's "hostile policy" required such a capability and insisted Pyongyang would never negotiate away its deterrent. Now South Korean officials say that Kim is ready to denuclearize. Even if true, the security guarantees he reportedly expects may be more than the administration is prepared to grant. A hastily pulled together summit based on differing expectations could produce a clash and push the president back to his militarily aggressive strategy. If diplomacy is seen to fail, war could become more likely. War, however, offers no guarantee of effective denuclearization. The United States likely does not know the location of all of the North's nuclear facilities; even if it did, many targets may be buried too deep to reach. Moreover, military action risks a full-scale regional conflagration. The Trump administration should formalize diplomatic channels to Pyongyang to defuse tensions and explore nonmilitary alternatives. In pressing for tougher action against North Korea, Washington should address China's interests. If and when tensions ease, the Trump administration should begin a process of military disengagement, turning defense responsibilities over to South Korea and its neighbors and withdrawing military forces, which entangle the United States and provide North Korea with American targets. Should a diplomatic resolution remain deadlocked, Washington should consider accepting South Korea's development of its own deterrent.