Russia's Game in the Balkans

• Published in: Policy File 2019
• Main Authors: Stronski, Paul, Himes, Annie
• Format: Report
• Language: English
• Subjects: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - US; Foreign policy

As Russian President Vladimir Putin continues his renewed campaign for global influence, Russia increasingly is asserting itself in the Balkans, hoping to slow down the region's integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions and tarnish the image of Western-style democracy in Southeastern Europe. Moscow eagerly plays up shared cultural ties and supports Russian commercial efforts to deepen economic and trade relations in key strategic sectors---like energy, banking, and real estate---to create Balkan political and economic dependence. Moscow's willingness and ability to aggravate and prolong political instability in select Balkan countries appears geared toward undermining, or at least delaying, their prospects for integration into the European Union (EU) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The region's geostrategic location between the Black and Mediterranean Seas, as well as its proximity to the Middle East, is also important to Moscow. The Kremlin's influence campaign in the Balkans also helps steer Western focus away from more disturbing actions elsewhere---Russia's military buildup in the Sea of Azov and subsequent aggression in the Kerch Strait, the worsening war conditions in eastern Ukraine, South Ossetia's moving boundary line, and Moscow's subtle influence operations targeting post-Velvet Revolution Armenia. For Russia, the Balkans are a tool used to deflect attention from other activities and influence broader European security and economic institutions. However, Moscow does not necessarily seek, nor would it be able, to assert itself as the preeminent power in Southeastern Europe, where it competes for influence not only with the West but also with China, Turkey, and even Persian Gulf states---all of which are active in the region.