AB 2 CO risk score for in-hospital mortality of COVID-19 patients admitted to intensive care units

• Published in: Respiratory medicine 2024-04, Vol.227, p.107635
• Main Authors: Gomes, Virginia Mara Reis, Pires, Magda Carvalho, Delfino Pereira, Polianna, Schwarzbold, Alexandre Vargas, Gomes, Angélica Gomides Dos Reis, Pessoa, Bruno Porto, Cimini, Christiane Correa Rodrigues, Rios, Danyelle Romana Alves, Anschau, Fernando, Nascimento, Francine Janaína Magalhães, Grizende, Genna Maira Santos, Vietta, Giovanna Grunewald, Batista, Joanna d'Arc Lyra, Ruschel, Karen Brasil, Carneiro, Marcelo, Reis, Marco Aurélio, Bicalho, Maria Aparecida Camargos, Porto, Paula Fonseca, Reis, Priscilla Pereira Dos, Araújo, Silvia Ferreira, Nobre, Vandack, Marcolino, Milena Soriano
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• ISSN: 1532-3064

To develop a mortality risk score for COVID-19 patients admitted to intensive care units (ICU), and to compare it with other existing scores. This retrospective observational study included consecutive adult patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to ICUs of 18 hospitals from nine Brazilian cities, from September 2021 to July 2022. Potential predictors were selected based on the literature review. Generalized Additive Models were used to examine outcomes and predictors. LASSO regression was used to derive the mortality score. From 558 patients, median age was 69 years (IQR 58-78), 56.3 % were men, 19.7 % required mechanical ventilation (MV), and 44.8 % died. The final model comprised six variables: age, pO /FiO , respiratory function (respiratory rate or if in MV), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and obesity. The AB CO had an AUROC of 0.781 (95 % CI 0.744 to 0.819), good overall performance (Brier score = 0.191) and an excellent calibration (slope = 1.063, intercept = 0.015, p-value = 0.834). The model was compared with other scores and displayed better discrimination ability than the majority of them. The AB CO score is a fast and easy tool to be used upon ICU admission.