Accuracy of prediction models for long-term type 2 diabetes remission after gastric bypass

Aim To evaluate the accuracy of DiaBetter, DiaRem, Ad-DiaRem and 5y-Ad-DiaRem scores’ at predicting T2D remission 10 or more years after surgery. Methods Patients with obesity and T2D ( n  = 126) submitted to RYGB with 10 or more years of follow-up. It was a unicentric trial. Pre-operative anthropom...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Acta diabetologica 2023-08, Vol.60 (8), p.1019-1026
Main Authors: Cardoso, Samuel, Pereira, Sofia S., Almeida, Rui F., Osório, Catarina, Silva, Diogo, Nora, Mário, Monteiro, Mariana P., Guimarães, Marta
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accuracy
Diabetes
Diabetes mellitus (non-insulin dependent)
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 - surgery
Gastric Bypass
Humans
Internal Medicine
Medicine
Medicine & Public Health
Metabolic Diseases
Obesity - surgery
Obesity, Morbid - surgery
Original
Original Article
Prediction models
Remission
Remission Induction
Retrospective Studies
Surgery
Treatment Outcome
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Summary:Aim To evaluate the accuracy of DiaBetter, DiaRem, Ad-DiaRem and 5y-Ad-DiaRem scores’ at predicting T2D remission 10 or more years after surgery. Methods Patients with obesity and T2D ( n  = 126) submitted to RYGB with 10 or more years of follow-up. It was a unicentric trial. Pre-operative anthropometric and clinical data was retrieved to calculate DiaRem, DiaBetter, Ad-DiaRem and 5y-Ad-DiaRem scores, while a hospital visit was conducted to assess current diabetes status. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was calculated as estimate of the scores’ accuracy to predict long-term T2D remission. Results Among the entire cohort ( n  = 126), 70 subjects (55.6%) achieved and maintained T2D remission 10 or more years after RYGB. The 5y-Ad-DiaRem score was the one that depicted the highest discriminative power (AUROC = 0.838) to predict long-term T2D remission when compared to DiaBetter (AUROC = 0.735), DiaRem (AUROC = 0.721) and Ad-DiaRem (AUROC = 0.720). Conclusion The score with highest accuracy to predict long-term T2D remission after RYGB surgery was the 5y-Ad-DiaRem. Yet, the available scores accuracy to predict T2D remission in the long term is still suboptimal, highlighting the unmet need for a better scoring system.
ISSN:1432-5233
0940-5429
1432-5233
DOI:10.1007/s00592-023-02092-1