Analysis of factors predictive of mortality in alcoholic hepatitis and derivation and validation of the Glasgow alcoholic hepatitis score

Introduction: Alcoholic hepatitis is associated with a high short term mortality. We aimed to identify those factors associated with mortality and define a simple score which would predict outcome in our population. Methods: We identified 241 patients with alcoholic hepatitis. Clinical and laborator...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Gut 2005-08, Vol.54 (8), p.1174-1179
Main Authors: Forrest, E H, Evans, C D J, Stewart, S, Phillips, M, Oo, Y H, McAvoy, N C, Fisher, N C, Singhal, S, Brind, A, Haydon, G, O’Grady, J, Day, C P, Hayes, P C, Murray, L S, Morris, A J
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
alanine aminotransferase
alcoholic hepatitis
Alcoholic Liver Disease
Alcoholism
ALT
aspartate aminotransferase
AST
Bilirubin
Bilirubin - blood
Biopsy
Blood
Blood Cell Count
discriminant function
GAHS
Gastroenterology
Glasgow alcoholic hepatitis score
Hepatitis
Hepatitis, Alcoholic - blood
Hepatitis, Alcoholic - mortality
Hepatitis, Alcoholic - physiopathology
Humans
INR
international normalised ratio
Liver cancer
Liver diseases
Logistic Models
mDF
Medical prognosis
Middle Aged
modified DF
Mortality
outcome measures
Patients
Peripheral blood
Predictive Value of Tests
Prognosis
Prothrombin
Prothrombin Time
Reproducibility of Results
Risk Factors
ROC Curve
Severity of Illness Index
Short term
Survival Analysis
Urea
Urea - blood
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Summary:Introduction: Alcoholic hepatitis is associated with a high short term mortality. We aimed to identify those factors associated with mortality and define a simple score which would predict outcome in our population. Methods: We identified 241 patients with alcoholic hepatitis. Clinical and laboratory data were recorded on the day of admission (day 1) and on days 6–9. Stepwise logistic regression was used to identify variables related to outcome at 28 days and 84 days after admission. These variables were included in the Glasgow alcoholic hepatitis score (GAHS) and its ability to predict outcome assessed. The GAHS was validated in a separate dataset of 195 patients. Results: The GAHS was derived from five variables independently associated with outcome: age (p = 0.001) and, from day 1 results, serum bilirubin (p
ISSN:0017-5749
1468-3288
1458-3288
DOI:10.1136/gut.2004.050781