Modelling bluetongue virus transmission between farms using animal and vector movements

Bluetongue is a notifiable disease of ruminants which, in 2007, occurred for the first time in England. We present the first model for bluetongue that explicitly incorporates farm to farm movements of the two main hosts, as well as vector dispersal. The model also includes a seasonal vector to host...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Scientific reports 2012-03, Vol.2 (1), p.319-319, Article 319
Main Authors: Turner, Joanne, Bowers, Roger G., Baylis, Matthew
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
631/114
631/1647/767
692/699
Animal diseases
Animals
Bluetongue
Bluetongue - epidemiology
Bluetongue - transmission
Cattle
Disease
Disease Outbreaks
Disease transmission
Disease Vectors
Dispersal
Epidemics
Epidemiology
Farms
Humanities and Social Sciences
Infections
Livestock
Models, Theoretical
multidisciplinary
Outbreaks
Restrictions
Science
Sheep
Surveillance
United Kingdom - epidemiology
Vector-borne diseases
Vectors
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Summary:Bluetongue is a notifiable disease of ruminants which, in 2007, occurred for the first time in England. We present the first model for bluetongue that explicitly incorporates farm to farm movements of the two main hosts, as well as vector dispersal. The model also includes a seasonal vector to host ratio and dynamic restriction zones that evolve as infection is detected. Batch movements of sheep were included by modelling degree of mixing at markets. We investigate the transmission of bluetongue virus between farms in eastern England (the focus of the outbreak). Results indicate that most parameters affecting outbreak size relate to vectors and that the infection generally cannot be maintained without between-herd vector transmission. Movement restrictions are effective at reducing outbreak size and a targeted approach would be as effective as a total movement ban. The model framework is flexible and can be adapted to other vector-borne diseases of livestock.
ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/srep00319