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Quantifying the ozone and ultraviolet benefits already achieved by the Montreal Protocol
Chlorine- and bromine-containing ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are controlled by the 1987 Montreal Protocol. In consequence, atmospheric equivalent chlorine peaked in 1993 and has been declining slowly since then. Consistent with this, models project a gradual increase in stratospheric ozone wit...
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Published in: | Nature communications 2015-05, Vol.6 (1), p.7233-7233, Article 7233 |
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description | Chlorine- and bromine-containing ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are controlled by the 1987 Montreal Protocol. In consequence, atmospheric equivalent chlorine peaked in 1993 and has been declining slowly since then. Consistent with this, models project a gradual increase in stratospheric ozone with the Antarctic ozone hole expected to disappear by ∼2050. However, we show that by 2013 the Montreal Protocol had already achieved significant benefits for the ozone layer. Using a 3D atmospheric chemistry transport model, we demonstrate that much larger ozone depletion than observed has been avoided by the protocol, with beneficial impacts on surface ultraviolet. A deep Arctic ozone hole, with column values |
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Ozone-depleting substances have been controlled by the 1987 Montreal Protocol, ensuring atmospheric concentrations are now in decline. 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P.</au><au>Dhomse, S. S.</au><au>Feng, W.</au><au>McKenzie, R. L.</au><au>Velders, G.J.M.</au><au>Pyle, J. A.</au><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Quantifying the ozone and ultraviolet benefits already achieved by the Montreal Protocol</atitle><jtitle>Nature communications</jtitle><stitle>Nat Commun</stitle><addtitle>Nat Commun</addtitle><date>2015-05-26</date><risdate>2015</risdate><volume>6</volume><issue>1</issue><spage>7233</spage><epage>7233</epage><pages>7233-7233</pages><artnum>7233</artnum><issn>2041-1723</issn><eissn>2041-1723</eissn><abstract>Chlorine- and bromine-containing ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are controlled by the 1987 Montreal Protocol. In consequence, atmospheric equivalent chlorine peaked in 1993 and has been declining slowly since then. Consistent with this, models project a gradual increase in stratospheric ozone with the Antarctic ozone hole expected to disappear by ∼2050. However, we show that by 2013 the Montreal Protocol had already achieved significant benefits for the ozone layer. Using a 3D atmospheric chemistry transport model, we demonstrate that much larger ozone depletion than observed has been avoided by the protocol, with beneficial impacts on surface ultraviolet. A deep Arctic ozone hole, with column values <120 DU, would have occurred given meteorological conditions in 2011. The Antarctic ozone hole would have grown in size by 40% by 2013, with enhanced loss at subpolar latitudes. The decline over northern hemisphere middle latitudes would have continued, more than doubling to ∼15% by 2013.
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subjects | 119/118 704/106/35/824 Atmospheric chemistry Atmospheric models Bromine Chemistry Chlorine Chlorofluorocarbons Cold Humanities and Social Sciences Latitude Montreal Protocol multidisciplinary Northern Hemisphere Organic chemistry Ozone Ozone depletion Ozone layer Ozonosphere Science Science (multidisciplinary) Stratosphere Temperature Three dimensional models |
title | Quantifying the ozone and ultraviolet benefits already achieved by the Montreal Protocol |
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