Drought losses in China might double between the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming

We project drought losses in China under global temperature increase of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C, based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a cluster analysis method, and “intensity-loss rate” function. In contrast to earlier studi...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2018-10, Vol.115 (42), p.10600-10605
Main Authors: Su, Buda, Huang, Jinlong, Fischer, Thomas, Wang, Yanjun, Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W., Zhai, Jianqing, Sun, Hemin, Wang, Anqian, Zeng, Xiaofan, Wang, Guojie, Tao, Hui, Gemmer, Marco, Li, Xiucang, Jiang, Tong
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
China
Climate change
Cluster analysis
Drought
Droughts - prevention & control
Droughts - statistics & numerical data
Evapotranspiration
Global Warming
Humans
Models, Theoretical
Physical Sciences
Precipitation
Seasons
Social Sciences
Socioeconomic factors
Socioeconomics
Sustainable development
Temperature
Time Factors
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Summary:We project drought losses in China under global temperature increase of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C, based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a cluster analysis method, and “intensity-loss rate” function. In contrast to earlier studies, to project the drought losses, we predict the regional gross domestic product under shared socioeconomic pathways instead of using a static socioeconomic scenario. We identify increasing precipitation and evapotranspiration pattern for the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming above the preindustrial at 2020–2039 and 2040–2059, respectively. With increasing drought intensity and areal coverage across China, drought losses will soar. The estimated loss in a sustainable development pathway at the 1.5 °C warming level increases 10-fold in comparison with the reference period 1986–2005 and nearly threefold relative to the interval 2006–2015. However, limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 °C can reduce the annual drought losses in China by several tens of billions of US dollars, compared with the 2.0 °C warming.
ISSN:0027-8424
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.1802129115