Improved Prediction of Drug-Induced Torsades de Pointes Through Simulations of Dynamics and Machine Learning Algorithms

• Published in: Clinical pharmacology and therapeutics 2016-10, Vol.100 (4), p.371-379
• Main Authors: Lancaster, M Cummins, Sobie, EA
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Algorithms; Humans; Machine Learning; Risk Factors; Torsades de Pointes - chemically induced
• ISSN: 0009-9236; 1532-6535
• DOI: 10.1002/cpt.367

The ventricular arrhythmia Torsades de Pointes (TdP) is a common form of drug‐induced cardiotoxicity, but prediction of this arrhythmia remains an unresolved issue in drug development. Current assays to evaluate arrhythmia risk are limited by poor specificity and a lack of mechanistic insight. We addressed this important unresolved issue through a novel computational approach that combined simulations of drug effects on dynamics with statistical analysis and machine‐learning. Drugs that blocked multiple ion channels were simulated in ventricular myocyte models, and metrics computed from the action potential and intracellular (Ca2+) waveform were used to construct classifiers that distinguished between arrhythmogenic and nonarrhythmogenic drugs. We found that: (1) these classifiers provide superior risk prediction; (2) drug‐induced changes to both the action potential and intracellular (Ca2+) influence risk; and (3) cardiac ion channels not typically assessed may significantly affect risk. Our algorithm demonstrates the value of systematic simulations in predicting pharmacological toxicity.