On a Statistical Transmission Model in Analysis of the Early Phase of COVID-19 Outbreak

Since December 2019, a disease caused by a novel strain of coronavirus (COVID-19) had infected many people and the cumulative confirmed cases have reached almost 180,000 as of 17, March 2020. The COVID-19 outbreak was believed to have emerged from a seafood market in Wuhan, a metropolis city of more...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Statistics in Biosciences 2021, Vol.13 (1), p.1-17
Main Authors: Zhu, Yifan, Chen, Ying Qing
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Biostatistics
Confidence intervals
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Disease control
Disease transmission
Health Sciences
Infectivity
Mathematical models
Mathematics and Statistics
Medicine
Outbreaks
Seafood
Sensitivity analysis
Statistical analysis
Statistics
Statistics for Life Sciences
Theoretical Ecology/Statistics
Viral diseases
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Summary:Since December 2019, a disease caused by a novel strain of coronavirus (COVID-19) had infected many people and the cumulative confirmed cases have reached almost 180,000 as of 17, March 2020. The COVID-19 outbreak was believed to have emerged from a seafood market in Wuhan, a metropolis city of more than 11 million population in Hubei province, China. We introduced a statistical disease transmission model using case symptom onset data to estimate the transmissibility of the early-phase outbreak in China, and provided sensitivity analyses with various assumptions of disease natural history of the COVID-19. We fitted the transmission model to several publicly available sources of the outbreak data until 11, February 2020, and estimated lock down intervention efficacy of Wuhan city. The estimated R 0 was between 2.7 and 4.2 from plausible distribution assumptions of the incubation period and relative infectivity over the infectious period. 95% confidence interval of R 0 were also reported. Potential issues such as data quality concerns and comparison of different modelling approaches were discussed.
ISSN:1867-1764
1867-1772
DOI:10.1007/s12561-020-09277-0