Predictive Modeling and Categorizing Likelihoods of Quarantine Pest Introduction of Imported Propagative Commodities from Different Countries

The present study investigates U.S. Department of Agriculture inspection records in the Agricultural Quarantine Activity System database to estimate the probability of quarantine pests on propagative plant materials imported from various countries of origin and to develop a methodology ranking the r...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Risk analysis 2019-06, Vol.39 (6), p.1382-1396
Main Authors: Kim, ByeongJoon, Hong, Seung Cheon, Egger, Daniel, Katsar, Catherine S., Griffin, Robert L.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Action rate
Agriculture
Bayesian analysis
categorization
Cluster analysis
Clustering
Commodities
Compliance
Confidence intervals
Federal agencies
Generalized linear models
Inspection
Interception
Linear analysis
Mathematical models
Original
Original s
Pests
Prediction models
Quarantine
quarantine pests
Ratings & rankings
Risk analysis
Risk assessment
risk‐based inspection
Statistical analysis
Statistical inference
Statistical models
Uncertainty
Validation studies
Validity
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Summary:The present study investigates U.S. Department of Agriculture inspection records in the Agricultural Quarantine Activity System database to estimate the probability of quarantine pests on propagative plant materials imported from various countries of origin and to develop a methodology ranking the risk of country–commodity combinations based on quarantine pest interceptions. Data collected from October 2014 to January 2016 were used for developing predictive models and validation study. A generalized linear model with Bayesian inference and a generalized linear mixed effects model were used to compare the interception rates of quarantine pests on different country–commodity combinations. Prediction ability of generalized linear mixed effects models was greater than that of generalized linear models. The estimated pest interception probability and confidence interval for each country–commodity combination was categorized into one of four compliance levels: “High,” “Medium,” “Low,” and “Poor/Unacceptable,” Using K‐means clustering analysis. This study presents risk‐based categorization for each country–commodity combination based on the probability of quarantine pest interceptions and the uncertainty in that assessment.
ISSN:0272-4332
1539-6924
DOI:10.1111/risa.13252