The predictable chaos of slow earthquakes

Slow earthquakes result from deterministic chaos and show predictability horizon time of the order of days to weeks. Slow earthquakes, like regular earthquakes, result from unstable frictional slip. They produce little slip and can therefore repeat frequently. We assess their predictability using th...

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Published in:Science advances 2020-07, Vol.6 (27)
Main Authors: Gualandi, A., Avouac, J.-P., Michel, S., Faranda, D.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Chaotic Dynamics
Dynamical Systems
Earth Sciences
Geophysics
Mathematics
Nonlinear Sciences
SciAdv r-articles
Sciences of the Universe
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Michel, S.
Faranda, D.
description Slow earthquakes result from deterministic chaos and show predictability horizon time of the order of days to weeks. Slow earthquakes, like regular earthquakes, result from unstable frictional slip. They produce little slip and can therefore repeat frequently. We assess their predictability using the slip history of the Cascadia subduction between 2007 and 2017, during which slow earthquakes have repeatedly ruptured multiple segments. We characterize the system dynamics using embedding theory and extreme value theory. The analysis reveals a low-dimensional (
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source American Association for the Advancement of Science; PMC (PubMed Central)
subjects Chaotic Dynamics
Dynamical Systems
Earth Sciences
Geophysics
Mathematics
Nonlinear Sciences
SciAdv r-articles
Sciences of the Universe
title The predictable chaos of slow earthquakes
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