COVID-19 risk index (CRI): a simple and validated emergency department risk score that predicts mortality and the need for mechanical ventilation

Although certain risk factors have been associated with morbidity and mortality, validated emergency department (ED) derived risk prediction models specific to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are lacking. The objective of this study is to describe and externally validate the COVID-19 risk index...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of thrombosis and thrombolysis 2022-04, Vol.53 (3), p.567-575
Main Authors: Raad, Mohamad, Gorgis, Sarah, Abshire, Chelsea, Yost, Monica, Dabbagh, Mohammed F, Chehab, Omar, Aurora, Lindsey, Patel, Sati, Nona, Paul, Yan, Jerry, Singh, Gurjit, Syrjamaki, John, Kaatz, Scott, Parikh, Sachin
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Aged
Cardiology
Cerebrovascular diseases
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
COVID-19 - therapy
Emergency medical care
Emergency Service, Hospital
Hematology
Hospitalization
Humans
Kidney diseases
Longitudinal Studies
Lung diseases
Mechanical ventilation
Medicine
Medicine & Public Health
Morbidity
Mortality
Obstructive lung disease
Patients
Prediction models
Respiration, Artificial
Retrospective Studies
Risk Assessment - methods
Risk Factors
SARS-CoV-2
Ventilation
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Summary:Although certain risk factors have been associated with morbidity and mortality, validated emergency department (ED) derived risk prediction models specific to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are lacking. The objective of this study is to describe and externally validate the COVID-19 risk index (CRI). A large retrospective longitudinal cohort study was performed to analyze consecutively hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Multivariate regression using clinical data elements from the ED was used to create the CRI. The results were validated with an external cohort of 1799 patients from the MI-COVID19 database. The primary outcome was the composite of the need for mechanical ventilation or inpatient mortality, and the secondary outcome was inpatient mortality. A total of 1020 patients were included in the derivation cohort. A total of 236 (23%) patients in the derivation cohort required mechanical ventilation or died. Variables independently associated with the primary outcome were age ≥ 65 years, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, cerebrovascular disease, initial D-dimer > 1.1 µg/mL, platelet count 
ISSN:0929-5305
1573-742X
DOI:10.1007/s11239-021-02565-6