COVID-19 seasonality in temperate countries

While the beneficial effect of vaccination, restrictive measures, and social distancing in reducing mortality due to SARS-CoV-2 is intuitive and taken for granted, seasonality (predictable fluctuation or pattern that recurs or repeats over a one-year period) is still poorly understood and insufficie...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental research 2022-04, Vol.206, p.112614-112614, Article 112614
Main Authors: D'Amico, Filippo, Marmiere, Marilena, Righetti, Beatrice, Scquizzato, Tommaso, Zangrillo, Alberto, Puglisi, Riccardo, Landoni, Giovanni
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
COVID-19
Humans
Mortality
Pandemics
Restrictive measures
SARS-CoV-2
Seasonality
Seasons
Temperature
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Summary:While the beneficial effect of vaccination, restrictive measures, and social distancing in reducing mortality due to SARS-CoV-2 is intuitive and taken for granted, seasonality (predictable fluctuation or pattern that recurs or repeats over a one-year period) is still poorly understood and insufficiently taken into consideration. We aimed to examine SARS-CoV-2 seasonality in countries with temperate climate. We identified countries with temperate climate and extracted average country temperature data from the National Center for Environmental information and from the Climate Change Knowledge Portal. We obtained mortality and vaccination rates from an open access database. We used the stringency index derived from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker to quantify restriction policies. We used Spearman's and rank-correlation non-parametric test coefficients to investigate the association between COVID-19 mortality and temperature values. We employed multivariate regression models to analyze how containment measures, vaccinations, and monthly temperatures affected COVID-19 mortality rates. The time series for daily deaths per million inhabitants and average monthly temperatures of European countries and US states with a temperate climate had a negative correlation (p 
ISSN:0013-9351
1096-0953
DOI:10.1016/j.envres.2021.112614