COVID-19 and the prevalence of drug shortages in Canada: a cross-sectional time-series analysis from April 2017 to April 2022

In March 2020, the Government of Canada introduced measures to reduce intensifying shortages of prescription drugs during the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. We sought to assess the extent to which a decline in drug shortages was observed in the months after this policy change. Our data source w...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Canadian Medical Association journal (CMAJ) 2022-06, Vol.194 (23), p.E801-E806
Main Authors: Lau, Brian, Tadrous, Mina, Chu, Cherry, Hardcastle, Lorian, Beall, Reed F
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Canada
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
COVID-19 - epidemiology
Cross-Sectional Studies
Drug Industry
Drug stores
Drugs
Epidemics
Humans
Pandemics
Pharmaceutical industry
Prescription drugs
Prevalence
Shortages
Statistics
Supply and demand
Supply chains
Time series
Trends
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Summary:In March 2020, the Government of Canada introduced measures to reduce intensifying shortages of prescription drugs during the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. We sought to assess the extent to which a decline in drug shortages was observed in the months after this policy change. Our data source was the Drug Shortages Canada Database, which reports shortages by drug product, including shortage start and duration. Using a cross-sectional design, we tracked shortage rates of drug products using a 30-day moving average from Apr. 15, 2017, to Apr. 1, 2022. We used autoregressive integrated moving average modelling with a ramp function to determine the significance of trend changes after policy implementation. We found that of the 13 329 drug products at risk for shortage, 44.7% ( = 5953) had at least 1 shortage event in the past 5 years. Average daily shortage prevalence rates rose from 901 in April 2017 to a peak of 2345 by April 2020. Significant declines ( = 0.02) ensued shortly thereafter, dropping to a rate of 1611 shortages by the end of the first year after policy implementation. However, we did not observe a significant reduction in shortage rates in the second year ( = 0.2), with rates plateauing below 1500 and then rising back above 1600 by the end of March 2022. Drug shortages are common in Canada, including during the initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic. We observed substantial improvements after the implementation of the new measures, but gains appear to have plateaued. Continued vigilance is needed to sustain improvements.
ISSN:0820-3946
1488-2329
1488-2329
DOI:10.1503/cmaj.212070