Can Jurisdictional Uncertainty and Capital Controls Explain the High Level of Real Interest Rates in Brazil? Evidence from Panel Data

• Published in: Revista Brasileira de Economia 2007-01, Vol.61 (1), p.49-76
• Main Authors: Goncalves, Fernando M, Spacov, Andrei, Holland, Marcio
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Brazil; Capital; Convertibility; Credit market; ECONOMICS; Interest rates; Jurisdiction; Panel data; Uncertainty
• ISSN: 0034-7140; 1806-9134; 0034-7140
• DOI: 10.1590/S0034-71402007000100004

ABSTRACT IN PORTUGUESE: Esse paper testa a hipütese, popularizada por Arida et al. (2005), de que riscos associados à incerteza jurisdicional e incoversibilidade da moeda nacional são importantes determinantes dos altos níveis da taxa básica de juros no Brasil. Os resultados dos testes são bastante desfavoráveis não apenas a essa hipotese, mas também a variantes dela. Os resultados também indicam que fatores tradicionais fiscais e monetários são bem mais relevantes para explicar o nível da taxa básica de juros, em comparação ao par incerteza jurisdicional/incoversibilidade da moeda. // ABSTRACT IN ENGLISH: This paper tests the assertion, popularized by Arida et al. (2005), that risks associated with the jurisdiction and currency inconvertibility are relevant determinants of the high level of short-term real interest rates in Brazil. The results are by and large unfavorable not only to their conjecture, but also to variants of their argument. The results further indicate that traditional monetary and fiscal factors are far more relevant to explain the level of short-term real interest rates than the binomial jurisdictional uncertainty/currency inconvertibility is. Reprinted by permission of Fundação Getulio Vargas