Indonesia palm oil production without deforestation and peat conversion by 2050

• Published in: The Science of the total environment 2016-07, Vol.557-558, p.562-570
• Main Authors: Afriyanti, Dian, Kroeze, Carolien, Saad, Asmadi
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Avoiding further peat cultivation; Crude palm oil; No further deforestation; Scenarios
• ISSN: 0048-9697; 1879-1026
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.03.032

Palm oil is a promising source of cooking oil and biodiesel. The demand for palm oil has been increasing worldwide. However, concerns exist surrounding the environmental and socio-economic sustainability of palm oil production. Indonesia is a major palm oil producing country. We explored scenarios for palm oil production in Indonesia until 2050, focusing on Sumatra, Kalimantan and Papua. Our scenarios describe possible trends in crude palm oil production in Indonesia, while considering the demand for cooking oil and biodiesel, the available land for plantations, production capacity (for crude palm oil and fresh fruit bunches) and environmentally restricting conditions. We first assessed past developments in palm oil production. Next, we analysed scenarios for the future. In the past 20years, 95% of the Indonesian oil palm production area was in Sumatra and Kalimantan and was increasingly cultivated in peatlands. Our scenarios for the future indicate that Indonesia can meet a considerable part of the global and Asian demand for palm oil, while avoiding further cultivation of peatlands and forest. By 2050, 264–447Mt crude palm oil may be needed for cooking oil and biodiesel worldwide. In Indonesia, the area that is potentially suitable for oil palm is 17 to 26Mha with a potential production rate of 27–38t fresh fruit bunches/ha, yielding 130–176Mt crude palm oil. Thus Indonesia can meet 39–60% of the international demand. In our scenarios this would be produced in Sumatra (21–26%), Kalimantan (12–16%), and Papua (2%). The potential areas include the current oil palm plantation in mineral lands, but exclude the current oil palm plantations in peatlands. Potential production of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) in the year 2050 on potentially available suitable land in Indonesia, and the total global demand for CPO in PalMA scenarios (PalmAM, PalmOS, PalmTG and PalmGO), representing interpretation of Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) scenarios, including Mosaic (AM), Order from strengths (OS), Techno Garden (TG), and Global Orchestration respectively. All assume no further deforestation and no oil palm plantations on peat soils. Dian Afriyanti, Carolien Kroeze, and Asmadi Saad. [Display omitted] •We explore scenarios for sustainable palm oil production in Indonesia in 2050.•Indonesia can stay a major oil palm exporting country in our scenarios.•Our scenarios assume no further deforestation or peat conversion.•Most sustainable palm cultivation is envisaged in Kalimantan