Recent Decrease in the Difference in Tropical Cyclone Occurrence between the Atlantic and the Western North Pacific

Climatologically, among all ocean basins, the western North Pacific (WNP) has the largest annual number of tropical cyclones (TCs) of around 26 while the Atlantic has around 13, yielding a difference of 13. However, the difference is −7 in 2020, with 30 TCs in the Atlantic and 23 in the WNP, which i...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Advances in atmospheric sciences 2022-09, Vol.39 (9), p.1387-1397
Main Authors: Chan, Johnny C. L., Liu, Kin Sik
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Anthropogenic factors
Atlantic Oscillation
Atmospheric Sciences
Climate Change and Variability of Tropical Cyclone Activity
Climate models
Cyclones
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
El Nino phenomena
Gases
Geophysics/Geodesy
Greenhouse effect
Greenhouse gases
Human influences
Hurricanes
La Nina
Meteorology
Ocean basins
Oceans
Original Paper
Tropical climate
Tropical cyclones
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Summary:Climatologically, among all ocean basins, the western North Pacific (WNP) has the largest annual number of tropical cyclones (TCs) of around 26 while the Atlantic has around 13, yielding a difference of 13. However, the difference is −7 in 2020, with 30 TCs in the Atlantic and 23 in the WNP, which is the most negative difference within the last 46 years. In fact, during the last 26 years, the difference in TC number is below 10 in ten years, with four years being negative. Such a decreasing difference in TC number can be attributed to the natural multidecadal variation of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, as well as other external forcings such as anthropogenic aerosol forcing and increased greenhouse gases, with the additional impact from the La Niña condition. This result has significant implications on climate model projections of future TC activity in the two ocean basins.
ISSN:0256-1530
1861-9533
DOI:10.1007/s00376-022-1309-x