Hindcast Experiment of Extraseasonal Short-Term Summer Climate Prediction over China with RegCM3_IAP9L-AGCM

• Published in: Acta meteorologica Sinica 2011-06, Vol.25 (3), p.376-385
• Main Author: 鞠丽霞 郎咸梅
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; Atmospheric Sciences; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Freshwater; Geophysics and Environmental Physics; Meteorology; 中国科学院; 夏季气候; 大气物理研究所; 大气环流模式; 气候预测; 短期预测; 试验; 降水距平百分率
• ISSN: 0894-0525; 2191-4788
• DOI: 10.1007/s13351-011-0312-4

The regional climate model RegCM3 has been one-way nested into IAP9L-AGCM, the nine-level atmospheric general circulation model of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, to perform a 20-yr （1982-2001） hindcast experiment on extraseaonal short-term prediction of China summer climate. The nested prediction system is referred to as RegCM3_IAP9L-AGCM in this paper. The results show that hindeasted climate fields such as 500-hPa geopotential height, 200- and 850-hPa zonal winds from RegCM3_IAP9L-AGCM have positive anomaly correlation coefficients （ACCs） with the observations, and are better than those from the stand-alone IAP9L-AGCM. Except for the 850-hPa wind field, the positive ACCs of the other two fields with observations both pass the 90% confidence level and display a zonal distribution. The results indicate that the positive correlation of summer precipitation anomaly percentage between the nested prediction system and observations covers most parts of China except for downstream of the Yangtze River and north of Northeast and Northwest China. The nested prediction system and the IAP9L-AGCM exhibit different hindcast skills over different regions of China, and the former demonstrates a higher skill over South China than the latter in predicting the summer precipitation.